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Company A · Investment committee · Macro monitor

The macro picture

Data to Sep 2026Retrieved 6 Oct 2026Real data from open sources

Norges Bank has raised the policy rate to 4.50%, with inflation at 3.3%

Scorecard

Latest · change on a year · ten-year range
NorwayUSEuro areaPolicy rateInflationUnemploymentGDP growthQuarterly10-year yieldGermany for EA

The dot shows where today sits in the ten-year range

Policy rate

0242016201820202022202420264.50%NO4.00%US2.50%EA
024201620182020202220242026
Norway4.50%
United States4.00%
Euro area2.50%

Per cent, end of month

Yield curve

September 202610Y less 3M +0.90 ppNormal
02463M2Y5Y10Y30Y4.094.654.804.995.370201620182020202220242026
02463M2Y5Y10Y30Y4.094.654.804.995.370201620182020202220242026
2016 to 2026

Dashed line is the latest curve · bars show the spread, red when inverted

Committee note

Drafted from the data
  • Norges Bank's policy rate is 4.50%, against 4.00% in the US and 2.50% in the euro area. That is 0.50 pp higher than a year ago.
  • Inflation in Norway was 3.3% in August 2026, with core inflation at 3.0%. The target is 2%. The US is at 3.4% and the euro area at 3.8%.
  • Real policy rates, the rate less inflation, are +1.0 pp in Norway, +0.4 pp in the US and −1.3 pp in the euro area.
  • The US yield curve is upward sloping, with the 10Y yield 0.90 pp above the 3M rate.
  • The Norwegian yield curve is upward sloping, with the 10Y yield 0.10 pp above the 3M rate.
  • The krone averaged 10.80 per euro and 9.38 per dollar in September 2026, stronger against the euro than a year earlier.
  • Brent averaged USD 91.1 a barrel in August 2026, +34% on a year earlier.

Draft for the chief investment officer to review

Real policy rates

Policy rate less inflation · pp
−10−502016201820202022202420260.95NO0.35US−1.30EA
−10−50201620182020202220242026

Below zero, money is cheap after inflation

Markets

Monthly averages · three years

Brent crude

USD 91.1+34.2% on a year · Aug 2026

EUR / NOK

10.80−7.5% on a year · Sep 2026

USD / NOK

9.38−5.7% on a year · Sep 2026

Sources Norges Bank · Federal Reserve (via FRED) · European Central Bank · Statistics Norway · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED) · Eurostat / European Central Bank · Eurostat · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED) · U.S. Energy Information Administration (via FRED)

Real data, retrieved 2026-10-06 · Company A is fictional · Built with Claude Code