GritAI

NVIDIANASDAQ NVDA

Growth drivers and sensitivitiesClose $237 on 7 Oct 2026Market cap $5.72tnReported to Q2 FY27Illustrative, not advice

Share price

$2377 Oct 2026

Your value

$206Base case

Upside

−13%Against the close

Price needs DC growth

+35%A year on average to FY31

Price to operating earnings

20.3xFY28, operating profit after tax

Value after FY31

79%Share of your value

Revenue by market

Drag or click to set Data Center · US$ bn
FY31 · Your modelData Center $669bn +6%Edge Computing $44.7bnOperating margin 65%
0200400600800ReportedYour model$27.0bnFY23$60.9bnFY24+217%$130bnFY25+142%$216bnFY26+68%$394bnFY27+90%$515bnFY28+32%$607bnFY29+18%$670bnFY30+10%$713bnFY31+6%
0200400600800ReportedYour model27FY2361FY24+217130FY25+142216FY26+68394FY27+90515FY28+32607FY29+18670FY30+10713FY31+6
Data CenterEdge ComputingFY27 first half, reported

What moves the value

One step each way · click a row
$206Price

From cash flow to value

US$ bn · discounted at 9.0%
$97.6bnH2 27$214bnFY28$231bnFY29$234bnFY30$228bnFY31$3.92tnTerminal$66.0bnCash$4.99tnEquityMarket cap $5.72tn
98H2 27214FY28231FY29234FY30228FY313.9tnTerminal66Cash5.0tnEquityMarket cap $5.72tn

Two drivers at once

Value per share · click a cell
AcrossDown
+46.0%+41.0%+36.0%+31.0%+26.0%+21.0%+16.0%
7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%
Above priceBelow priceYour case

What you have to believe

For $237, one at a time
DriverYoursNeededGap
DC growth+31.2%+35.5%+4.3 pp
Edge growth+15.0%+50.0%+35.0 pp
Gross margin74.0%Not enough alone
Opex share9.0%Not enough alone
Tax16.0%Not enough alone
Cash conv.85.0%98.3%+13.3 pp
WACC9.0%8.2%−0.8 pp
Terminal g3.0%3.9%+0.9 pp

Reported quarters

Q2 FY27Revenue $96.2bn +106% y/yData Center 93% of revenueHyperscale 55% of Data CenterGross margin 75.0%
05010060%70%80%FY24Q2Q3Q4FY25Q2Q3Q4FY26Q2Q3Q4FY27Q2
05010060%70%80%FY24FY25FY26FY27Q2
Data CenterEdge ComputingGross margin, right axis

Price against the model

Jan 23 to Oct 26Low $15High $237
100200300202420252026Bull $357Base $206Yours $206Bear $70
100200300202420252026Bull $357Base $206Yours $206Bear $70

Analyst note

Drafted from the data
  • Data Center was 93% of revenue in Q2 FY27, against 60% in Q1 FY24. The value of the company now rests on one market.
  • Revenue in Q2 FY27 was $96.2bn, +106% on a year earlier. Your FY27 of $394bn needs $216bn in the second half, +12% against two more quarters at the Q2 FY27 level.
  • Gross margin was 75.0% in Q2 FY27. Your case uses 74.0%, and each point is worth about $3 a share.
  • 79% of your value sits beyond FY2031, so the long run matters more than the next two years.
  • The biggest swing is Data Center growth. Moving it 10 points each way puts the value between $145 and $287.

Reported figures from NVIDIA’s filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, to Q2 FY27 (quarter ended 26 Jul 2026). Fiscal years end in late January. From FY27 NVIDIA reports two markets, Data Center and Edge Computing, and earlier years are shown on the same basis. Cash in the value bridge is cash and debt securities less debt, plus listed equity stakes, on 26 Jul 2026. The forecast is the reader’s own assumptions in a simple discounted cash flow model. An illustration of the method, not investment advice. Sources SEC company facts · Latest 10-Q · CFO commentary · Nasdaq prices

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